No watches are valid as of Fri Feb 13 16:30:02 UTC 2026.No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Feb 13 16:30:02 UTC 2026.SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026
Valid 131300Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms could produce hail and gusty
winds this evening into the overnight hours across portions of the
southern Plains.
...Southern Plains...
An upper trough this morning over southern CA/eastern Pacific to the
west of Baja California will move east into the southern Rockies by
early Saturday morning. Strengthening south-southeasterly 850mb
flow is forecast to advect richer moisture northwestward from the
Hill Country (50s dewpoints) into parts of west TX northeastward
into western/central OK. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates sampled at 12
UTC this morning in Midland, TX (7.7 deg C/km), will aid in the
development of 500-1200 J/kg MUCAPE as the moist plume gradually
moistens/heats today. Forecast soundings shows strong to very
strong effective shear (50-70 kt), which will support storm
organization.
Initially, isolated storms are forecast to develop on the northwest
periphery of moisture return over parts of northwest TX late this
afternoon. As the upper trough approaches the region this evening
into the overnight, a more extensive southwest to northeast corridor
of convection is expected. One or more clusters will likely evolve
into linear bands and move east-northeastward near an
eastward-moving Pacific front and from prior storm-generated cold
pools. One of these linear clusters seems likely from parts of the
Permian Basin vicinity into northwest TX tonight as deeper
large-scale forcing for ascent pivots into the southern High Plains.
A predominately hail risk with the strongest storms this
afternoon/evening will probably transition to a mix of hail/wind
potential during the overnight as the storm mode becomes more
linear. Strengthening low-level warm-air advection over OK tonight
will favor primarily elevated strong to locally severe storms
capable of a hail risk into perhaps as far north as southern KS
during the pre-dawn hours on Saturday.
..Smith/Moore.. 02/13/2026
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1026 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026
Valid 131630Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce occasional hail
and gusty winds this evening into the overnight hours across parts
of the southern Plains.
...Southern Plains...
An upper trough over Baja California late this morning will move
eastward across the Southwest/northern Mexico into the southern
Rockies by early Saturday morning. Gradually strengthening low-level
flow will continue to advect somewhat richer moisture northwestward
from the TX Hill Country (mostly 50s surface dewpoints) into parts
of west TX and western/central OK through the period. Modestly
steepened mid-level lapse rates present will support around 500-1000
J/kg MUCAPE by this evening across the southern High Plains. Various
NAM/RAP forecast soundings show strong effective bulk shear (around
50-70 kt) this evening/overnight as southwesterly mid/upper-level
flow strengthens with the approach of the upper trough, which will
likely support thunderstorm organization.
Isolated thunderstorms should initially develop on the northwest
periphery of the low-level moisture return over parts of northwest
TX and vicinity late this afternoon/early evening with some hail
threat. As large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough
approaches the southern High Plains later this evening, a more
extensive southwest to northeast corridor of convection is expected.
One or more clusters may eventually evolve into linear bands and
develop east-northeastward along/near an eastward-moving Pacific
front.
One of these linear clusters with perhaps embedded supercells seems
likely to occur early Saturday morning (after 14/06Z) from parts of
west into northwest TX as stronger forcing for ascent overspreads
this region. Mainly an isolated severe hail risk with the strongest
updrafts this afternoon/evening should transition to a mix of
hail/wind potential during the overnight hours as the convective
mode becomes more linear. Strengthening low-level warm-air advection
over OK tonight will favor primarily elevated strong to locally
severe thunderstorms capable of occasional hail, perhaps extending
as far north as southern KS during the pre-dawn hours Saturday.
..Gleason/Wendt.. 02/13/2026
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1013 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026
Valid 131700Z - 141200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Southeast...
A dry air mass associated with surface high pressure moving into the
Mid Atlantic will support minimum relative humidity as low as 15
percent across portions of the southeast and northern FL today.
Although dry fuels are present, a diffuse surface pressure gradient
will promote light winds of 10 mph or less across much of the
Southeast, limiting a broader fire weather threat. However, brief
and localized elevated fire weather concerns are still possible
across the coastal plains of GA/SC where sustained northeast winds
of 10 mph, relative humidity below 20 percent and dry fuels align.
...Southern Plains...
Increasing mid and upper-level moisture and associated cloud cover
ahead of a pronounced short wave trough entering the Southwest is
observed overspreading the Southern Plains. At the surface, lee
troughing across the central/southern High Plains continues to usher
in deeper boundary layer moisture from the Gulf into TX/OK. These
factors should largely subdue fire weather concerns today, with
wetting rains expected tonight into Day 2 across much of the
Southern Plains as the short wave ejects into the region.
..Williams.. 02/13/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1214 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough and associated jet max will traverse
the southwestern CONUS through the day today, bringing mid-level
moisture from the Pacific. Additionally, with the lee troughing
across the southern high Plains, moist air is expected to surge
northward cross the southern Plains. This is expected to promote
widespread precipitation in these regions, minimizing fire weather
concerns. Elsewhere, surface high pressure associated with
northwesterly flow aloft should settle across the eastern CONUS, and
the light winds associated with the high pressure should keep fire
concerns minimal.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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