climatology. A prolonged period of above average temperatures is anticipated beneath this upper level ridge. Daily highs in the low to mid 50s Monday and Tuesday will top out in the upper 50s to lower 60s by Wednesday behind a warm front. For reference, average temperatures in mid to late February are generally in the upper 30s to lower 40s. This extended period of above normal temperatures may lead to localized impacts due to the melting of the existing snow pack and ice jams. Will continue to monitor the potential for ice jams over the next few days. && .AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/... A mix of low stratus and high cirrus currently and exiting light rain across the south as low pressure passes south of the region. The complication in the aviation forecast comes tonight with a low level inversion and trapped moisture, and deciphering between fog, low stratus, or nothing in the lower levels at all. Based on forecast soundings, the best chance for fog will be south and east of the MFD to CLE line, not including those terminals. Have LIFR fog in the forecast for CAK and YNG after 05Z tonight lingering into the late morning hours Monday. Going with IFR to perhaps LIFR stratus at MFD and ERI, and CLE/FDY/TOL at mainly VFR ceilings with no low stratus cloud formation expected. There is some lower confidence to this forecast at this time, with the biggest impact of this lower confidence at the VFR terminals tonight. May need to add the low stratus in if the signal for cloud cover development in the trapped inversion becomes a little more robust. For terminals that do go into low ceilings or visibilities, it will likely take some time after sunrise for the flight categories to improve. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in rain Wednesday. && .MARINE...

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A sliver of open water has developed just east of the islands and pulled away from the shore from around Vermilion to Cleveland. Otherwise, the lake is primarily ice-covered. Variable winds less than 10kts become offshore Monday/Monday night increasing to 10-15kts, then back to variable through Tuesday as a frontal boundary approaches and then becomes stationary near the southern shore of Lake Erie. Winds increase out of the south to 15-25kts Tuesday night, and then back to southwesterly late Wednesday into Wednesday night 15-25kts with another low pressure system moving through the region. Low pressure with a cold front is expected at the end of the week.

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&& .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...13 AVIATION...26 MARINE...26